Senators Closer To Health Package

Senate negotiators are inching toward bipartisan agreement on a health-care plan that seeks middle ground on some of the thorniest issues facing Congress, offering the fragile outlines of a legislative consensus even as the political battle over reform intensifies outside Washington.

The emerging Finance Committee bill would shave about $100 billion off the projected trillion-dollar cost of the legislation over the next decade and eventually provide coverage to 94 percent of Americans, according to participants in the talks. It would expand Medicaid, crack down on insurers, abandon the government insurance option that President Obama is seeking and, for the first time, tax health-care benefits under the most generous plans. Backers say the bill would also offer the only concrete plan before Congress for reining in the skyrocketing cost of federal health programs over the long term.


Three Democrats and three Republicans from the Senate Finance Committee will brief Obama on Thursday about the progress of their sometimes arduous talks, which are now set to extend through the August recess. The negotiators are holding the details close as they continue to debate key issues, and it could be a challenge for them to meet the Sept. 15 deadline set by the committee's chairman, Max Baucus (D-Mont.), for a deal.

Even if the partnership does not result in legislation, Democratic leaders are already contemplating ways to preserve much of what it produces as they look to unite their party and pick up Republican votes when the health-care debate moves to the Senate floor in the fall. The Finance Committee coalition is seeking compromise on some of the most complex issues facing Congress, including how to compel employers to continue providing insurance to their workers; how to more fairly distribute government subsidies for coverage; and who and how many should be allowed to remain uninsured.

Lawmakers said insurance companies are likely to pass the cost of such a tax to policyholders, raising the price of those plans. That would create a strong incentive for employers to stop offering them, thus driving down overall health-care costs. With employers paying less for insurance, tax analysts predict, they would pay workers more in wages, increasing income tax collections by as much as $180 billion over the next decade.

The Finance Committee proposal is also likely to contain a number of much smaller tax provisions, including a $2,000 cap on flexible savings accounts -- which are currently unlimited -- and a plan to improve tax compliance by requiring businesses to tell the Internal Revenue Service when they pay corporations for services.

"We've got options on the table that will pay for this fully," said Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), one of the negotiators. "It's a matter of choosing which pieces and how much of each piece is selected."

The excise tax is one of five provisions designed to slow the soaring trajectory of federal health spending, which is on track to bankrupt the country by the middle of the century absent significant reform, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Spurred by the CBO director's startling assertion last month that measures drafted by other committees would not bend the "cost curve," negotiators on the finance panel are also studying a plan to fine insurance companies that do not pay providers electronically, a plan to reduce payments to providers to force them to increase efficiency and a plan to study the comparative effectiveness of various medical treatments.

Finance Committee negotiators also want to set a target for savings through those reforms. If the target is not met, they would create a panel, called the Medicare Preservation Commission, that would recommend ways to obtain additional savings.

Baucus said preliminary estimates from the CBO, the nonpartisan arbiter of the cost of legislation, show that an early version of the plan would not only pay for itself but would begin to reduce projected budget deficits by 2019.

Health care debate: How many actually uninsured?

By ERICA WERNER (AP)

WASHINGTON — It's a central goal of the president's plan: Extending health care coverage to the millions of Americans who lack it. Question is, just how many million are uninsured?

The answer could make a huge difference in the billions of dollars it will cost to remake the national system.

Barack Obama frequently cites last year's Census Bureau number of 46 million people with no health insurance. But some experts argue that figure is off by tens of millions — in one direction or the other.

The recession's continuing toll on jobs, a tendency to undercount people on Medicaid and other factors make it hard to come up with an exact number. And the most widely accepted range — 40 million to 50 million — includes some 10 million non-citizens, a detail that's generally overlooked when Obama and others talk about "uninsured Americans."

The lack of certainty about such big numbers is one more question mark for Obama and members of Congress as they try to craft a plan that would cover most of the uninsured. Obama says his goal is to cover 97 percent to 98 percent of Americans, a target that would be reached by plans taking shape in the Senate — if you don't count illegal immigrants. A bill crafted by House Democrats comes in closer to 94 percent.

All the plans would exclude illegal immigrants, who account for as much as 17 percent of the uninsured, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

"I want to cover everybody," Obama said at a news conference last month. "Now, the truth is that unless you have a what's called a single-payer system in which everybody is automatically covered, then you're probably not going to reach every single individual."

Some people don't want health insurance or just don't bother to get it, but most people who don't have it can't afford it, Obama said.

"So I think that the basic idea should be that in this country, if you want health care, you should be able to get affordable health care," he said.

New Census Bureau figures expected next month could scramble the equation, adding billions in costs if the numbers come in higher than expected, or reducing costs if the numbers are lower.

There could be serious implications "if we all of a sudden found that instead of 45 million uninsured there are 35 million," said Michael O'Grady, a senior fellow at the University of Chicago's health policy and evaluation department and a former assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services.

A lower figure could cut two ways: making Congress' job cheaper, but also making the country's health care woes seem less pressing.

Even if there are fewer uninsured than now estimated, health experts emphasize that it's still a lot of people, and being uninsured has consequences. The Institute of Medicine has found that uninsured people are more likely to succumb to illness and suffer premature death.

Still, some overhaul foes are accusing the media of overreporting the number of uninsured in order to frighten the public and "bolster calls for universal government-run insurance coverage," as a report by the conservative media watchdog Media Research Center's Business and Media Institute put it.

The 46 million number (actually 45.7 million) cited by Obama and others comes from the Census Bureau's annual Current Population Survey for 2007. It's the consensus figure, but some researchers believe the CPS overstates the number of uninsured people, partly by undercounting how many people are on Medicaid, the federal-state program for the poor.

Another government survey, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey done by the Department of Health and Human Services, says that about 40 million people were uninsured for all of 2007, and about 70 million were uninsured for part of the year.

All those numbers are out-of-date. Taking into account the effects of the recession, with widespread job losses cutting into employer-provided health care — more than 5 million jobs have been lost since last August — researchers at the Urban Institute and elsewhere estimate that the present-day number of uninsured is closer to 50 million. That's the number used by the Congressional Budget Office.

The Census Bureau is releasing its Current Population Survey for 2008 on Sept. 10. Then, later in September, for the first time, it's releasing health coverage information collected by the American Community Survey, which has a much larger sample size than the CPS. Some researchers are expecting that number to be more precise.